-3.png)
It's a well publicised fact that New Zealand, and many other parts of the world, have an ageing population. The question is, are we prepared for the a shift in the property typology we need to house these buyers?
We'll shoot past one million people aged 65+ by 2028, with the 65+ group making up around a quarter of the country within the next few decades. Source: https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/one-million-people-aged-65-by-2028/
If you exclude non-buyers like children and most under-25s (roughly one-third of the population). That makes people 65+ around 28–30% of likely buyers by 2028. In other words, close to a third of the true buying segment of the country.
Couple that with the fact that many young people are actually leaving New Zealand to chase better paying jobs over the ditch, and you'll quickly see there is a changing landscape of appropriate housing.
We currently have (at time of writing) a surplus of two storey townhouses in most major cities.
These homes are sitting on the market while many developers continue to dump more of the same stock into an already oversaturated segment. In Auckland specifically, approximately 59–63% of new dwellings consented in late-2024 were townhouses/flats/units - many remain empty, lingering on the books of developers.
Consider the buyer profile of these homes. They're often sold as 'investments' and marketed to the renting portion of the population - namely younger professionals, however, they seemingly want to head to Australia for better pay and a holiday experience!
This puts pressures on townhouse landlords to find good quality, stable tenants. And rents have faced downward pressure as supply has in fact outstripped demand. Harder to sell, harder to rent. This is what we call 'sticky stock'.
In a roundabout way, this actually puts pressure on the downsizer market.
How you ask..?!
Well, consider the best sites for development.
They're usually 1000m2 with a home plonked right in the middle, usually sprawling footprint, built in the 1930', 40's, 50's etc when land was (apparently) infinitely abundant and relatively cheap. Little consideration was given to our current issue of worldwide population growth! Land was like toilet paper, it was only when it started running low that we became more efficient with it (apologies for the crass analogy).
Many of these homes were, single storey.
When we get rid of these homes in densification areas, they make way for townhouses or apartments and bedrooms typically move upstairs - fine for the younger generation - not so much for the increasingly ageing population.
Well, retirement villages, or 'homes', have lost the appeal to the this retiring generation for a number of reasons...
The old model is out of step with what boomers value: they want ownership over licence-to-occupy, privacy over communal living and homes in established neighbourhoods near family, friends and ammenities. Even big operators are pulling back on large village projects, and elderly housing consents have fallen sharply in the last two years. The demographic has not gone anywhere, in fact it's increasing – it is the product that must change.
Unfortunately, they're like a tarnished brand. This generation's experience visiting their own parents and grandparents in clinical soul-less 'homes' has diminished their views of these places. Don't get me wrong, there are very nice options too but the model it's self is starting to creak.
We had a customer walk into our office a few weeks ago, he said he'd never go in one. He was in his 70's - he referred to them as 'God's waiting room' - in jest, but you know what they say about things said in jest.
In fact, only 6% of Boomers say they're willing to go into a 'home' and only the ones who NEED care will consider it. But that's only part of the picture.
This generation is the healthiest, wealthiest generation New Zealand has ever seen.
Many have lived well, looked after themselves and remained active. 60 years old now, is young versus a 60 year old 3 decades ago. Think of the advances we have had between the generations in terms of nutrition, health and wellness.
Plenty have enjoyed tremendous capital gains and have profited from ownership their whole lives - ownership of property and ownership of businesses. They don't want a 'license to occupy' that stands right in the face of what has made them the most money - ownership.
They like to see their name on the Title. They know the value of buying good quality property.
Hence why we at Rosefern are designing good quality property for their needs and wants.
Good question. And I'd like to take a moment here to say: this is our business plan going forward but I firmly believe that the market is so large, there is room for many other operators. We aren't trying to build a mega empire, we just want to build homes for people who appreciate what we do, that we solve a problem for them and in a segment where demand is higher than supply.
We've been down townhouse trap when demand was higher than supply, that has shifted, we intend not to delve too far into it again, until the timing is right again and our skills are needed. Owning a development company is like captaining a ship, looking ahead for blue skies rather than ploughing head first into a storm!
The argument against what we are doing is frequently: 'well, they can move to the outskirts into a new subdivision for single level living'.
And yes, they can, and some might. However, the research shows the risks of shifting people later in life to unfamiliar areas: older New Zealanders strongly prefer to remain in their own communities and disruption of local ties increases isolation and stress, with measurable wellbeing impacts.
We believe the solution isn’t just 'more houses'. It’s more downsizer-friendly options in established areas so people can stay near family, friends and familiarities. Upheaval and change at this point in life is infinitely harder and the risks are very apparent.
Up to 50% of older people are at risk of social isolation, globally.
The links between isolation and health and wellness are well documented and rather saddening. For further reading, check out some of the studies in this link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167494320301138?
They say your customer gives you the best ideas.
This couldn't be more true, the same guy I reference earlier, also waxed lyrical about his Aunt who was in a home, and he said she has 'gone downhill' since everything has been taken care of for her. She became institutionalised, lacked a purpose and grew old because of the isolation with other elderly people.
He told us about his neighbourhood, how he knows the family across the street really well because the come across for tea with their kids, they're in the 30's. He hears about their 6 year olds day at school. 'It's marvelous, I hear all of his stories and who his new friends are! I wouldn't get that in a home, my Aunt just tells me who has died and who has fallen over recently.'
Your environment can keep you young.
His neighbour showed him how to use Chat GPT and he uses it for making recipes. That's true community.
With an ageing population and the need for downsizing becoming more and more prevelent, we sought to simplify the process. It is in fact a process we have done many times as a company - in fact, our 92 Tennyson Street was a 'Home Exchange'. I'll explain myself...
The traditional model: sell-then-buy and hope we can line everything up is a little stressful. We sought more certainty for our customers.
When uncertainty is replaced with clarity and the process is mapped out, stress levels reduce dramatically. Downsizing should be a liberating move, not a laborious, time constrained push. The average downsize decision takes 36 weeks so buying off-plans is actually a smart way to secure a home and buy enough time to coordinate the transition.
Armed with that knowledge we broke down what can be a stressful process to see if we could make it simpler.
We rebranded our old TradeUp program and called it: Home Exchange. Same concept, more appropriate name (TradeUp didn't really resonate when 'down' sizing).
Essentially it combines two simple solutions to create one simple move: de-stress the selling process and de-stress the buying process.
*Note. If we don't have a development that currently suits you, we do take expressions of interest from people who live in areas they would like us to develop. If there is enough demand, we can look to fulfil supply.
We map out the 'move path' up front, confirm dates and give a single point of contact. You stay in your home until settlement, then move once into your new home on completion. You'll have time to de-clutter, get this kids to collect their belonging from the attic (finally) and start shopping for new-home-appropriate furniture.
Stress should be replaced by excitement.
So our answer to these upcoming problems is to create compact, considered housing. We'll build appropriate, smaller (but not too small), future-proofed, freehold homes in established suburbs, with downstairs bedrooms so you can buy with a 10-20-30 year lens. Single level living is always a backstop if mobility issues hit in the future yet if the stairs don't scare you, enjoy the full benefits of your modern, high spec low maintenance home.
And of course, this can all be coordinated through Home Exchange so you can move once and stay local.
For more information, feel free to contact us to see if we can coordinate your next move.
-3.png)
-4.png)